Libya battered by dust storms and climate change

Dust storms, or al-’ajaaj in colloquial Arabic, are considered seasonal phenomena in Libya. Dust storms typically occur in April, with varying economic, social, and health impacts depending on their intensity and duration. However, it has been observed that storms have increased in both frequency and intensity in recent years, leading many to attribute this trend to climate change. Dust storms can have significant impacts, including degrading air quality, disrupting air flights, reducing visibility on roads, obstructing traffic, causing accidents, let alone other economic and agricultural losses. In addition, intense storms result in several casualties, especially those suffering from respiratory diseases.

Sand and dust storms are among the extreme weather phenomena that affect Libya, along with heat waves, sudden torrential rains, and fog. These storms are often caused by strong monsoon winds that pick up dry, exposed particles of dust from the ground and carry them through the atmosphere for many kilometres, sometimes even reaching other countries and continents. The dust from the Sahara Desert travels as far as the Caribbean on journeys that can take several days, carrying approximately 60 million tons of dust particles.

According to a World Bank report, there are three types of storm dust: aquatic, which is formed by water bodies; natural, which arises from dry land areas; and artificial, which results from human activities such as poor land use. North Africa contributes 55% of global dust emissions, with the Sahara Desert being the largest source of global dust. Human activity, on the other hand, accounts for only 8% of global dust.

As for sand storms, al-Danjali explained that “they typically originate in sand dunes, especially southerly or northerly winds which are more likely to occur in the desert. These tend to be local and rarely travel across regions, unlike dust storms, which can reach as far as the United States and Scandinavian countries, including Italy.” He added, “the difference between dust and sand storms is that only the former travel such long distances.”

Climate change and the severity of dust storms

A study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR) of the American Geophysical Union found that climate change will lead to less frequent but more intense desert dust storms in the future. Notably, there has been an increase in Saharan dust transport over the past 100 years compared to major incidents in the past 2,000 years. The study analysed ice samples from the Swiss-Italian Alps to track Saharan dust over the past two millennia. This increase is attributed to a combination of enhanced high-pressure systems over the Mediterranean and drier conditions in North Africa.

The JGR study, published in 2019, concludes that severe droughts caused by low precipitation and high temperatures in North Africa will result in increased dust and decreased air quality in residential areas along the transport paths of the desert dust. However, an American-French study conducted in collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Centre for Space Studies (CNES) suggests that desert dust activity may decrease in the next 20-50 years due to climate change and its impact on wind speed. The likelihood of increasing or decreasing sand and dust storm activity remains uncertain and depends on the wetness and dryness of the region. There is currently no clear evidence showing trends for future dust storm activity.

A report published by the CAMS program also noted that drought conditions and desertification linked to global warming could lead to increased amounts of dust and make the use of water and land unsustainable. Ali al-Danjali agreed that accelerated desertification and increased desert dust are caused by local activities, which he summarised as “poor land use, tree cutting, over-abstraction of water, and overgrazing.”

In 2015, al-Danjali cooperated with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in a research on the spatial distribution, frequency, and seasonality of dust and sand storms in Libya. One of the findings of the report was that the misuse and exploitation of land in Libya leads to soil erosion and desertification, and that dry lands affected by human activity contribute to soil disruption, making them sources of dust.

Missing data and lack of monitoring

Dust storm activity can be tracked and measured using a variety of methods, including satellite imagery, on-ground assessment, and mathematical modelling. These methods can be used to estimate dust concentration, storm intensity, duration, and variations over time, as well as to predict future storm activity and susceptibility to climate change. However, the lack of monitoring and measurement mechanisms for dust storms in Libya is a major issue for local specialists.

“There are no devices available to measure and monitor sand storms in Libya, and we rely on regional monitoring systems or other traditional means, neither of which provide accurate quantitative data or high levels of probability," said al-Danjali. The NCM's current measurement methods are limited to traditional horizontal vision methods, and digital devices for documenting dust storms are simply not available.

The lack of monitoring and measurement tools for dust storm activity raises concerns about the Libyan state's ability to address future seasons of desert dust. This is particularly relevant given the current challenges faced by Libyan flora and fauna, including drought, water scarcity, and a lack of policies addressing and adapting to the climate crisis. One potential solution is to prioritise the needs of the NCM in order to fill the data gap, as recommended in a report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Libya. The WMO report emphasised the importance of weather data in supporting policymakers in developing action plans to combat desertification, mitigate the impacts of climate change, and improve natural resource management. To effectively monitor atmospheric dust on the ground, constant measurements need to be taken, starting with accurate analyses of local monitoring needs and building the capacity of staff to operate and maintain monitoring stations.

Addressing desert dust and dust storms

The impact of desert dust on public health, the environment, and the national economy cannot be underestimated, particularly in light of its increased frequency and intensity due to climate change. Therefore, it is critical for the Libyan government to prioritise the development of action plans in the coming years. In the absence of any climate change policies, it is all the more urgent to start developing such policies that take into account the most extreme phenomena.

The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification recommends strategies that combine impact mitigation and resource mitigation. Impact mitigation strategies focus on activities such as educating the population, especially vulnerable groups, about the impacts of dust storms, conducting risk assessments, establishing early warning systems and emergency response plans, and developing plans to reduce risks. Resource mitigation strategies involve activities that promote sustainable and integrated management of land, water bodies, and water resources.

One important strategy for reducing the economic and health impacts of dust storms is to build early warning systems, which can help to reduce road and flight disruptions and protect crops before and during storms. Forecasting dust storms can also be life-saving, for example by providing early warnings to people with respiratory diseases so that they can take necessary precautions.

In addition, reducing erosion factors in most areas of Libya is another effective strategy for mitigating the impact of dust storms. This strategy would preserve vegetation cover and reduce drought and soil disintegration. Furthermore, implementing sustainable water management practices can also significantly decrease the intensity of storms. In countries that experience dust storms seasonally, many projects are underway to build windbreaks - natural vegetation barriers that reduce wind speed and provide shelter for populations and delicate fields. The WMO report by al-Dinjali highlights the potential benefits of planting trees and shrubs and implementing sand soil stabilisation projects to combat sand movement and desertification.

To effectively address future impacts, it is crucial to demonstrate political will to tackle the challenges of climate change. This includes taking ambitious and responsible action on climate change, such as developing Libya's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for climate action and reviving the work of the National Climate Change Committee.

Dust storms, or al-’ajaaj in colloquial Arabic, are considered seasonal phenomena in Libya. Dust storms typically occur in April, with varying economic, social, and health impacts depending on their intensity and duration. However, it has been observed that storms have increased in both frequency and intensity in recent years, leading many to attribute this trend to climate change. Dust storms can have significant impacts, including degrading air quality, disrupting air flights, reducing visibility on roads, obstructing traffic, causing accidents, let alone other economic and agricultural losses. In addition, intense storms result in several casualties, especially those suffering from respiratory diseases.

Sand and dust storms are among the extreme weather phenomena that affect Libya, along with heat waves, sudden torrential rains, and fog. These storms are often caused by strong monsoon winds that pick up dry, exposed particles of dust from the ground and carry them through the atmosphere for many kilometres, sometimes even reaching other countries and continents. The dust from the Sahara Desert travels as far as the Caribbean on journeys that can take several days, carrying approximately 60 million tons of dust particles.

According to a World Bank report, there are three types of storm dust: aquatic, which is formed by water bodies; natural, which arises from dry land areas; and artificial, which results from human activities such as poor land use. North Africa contributes 55% of global dust emissions, with the Sahara Desert being the largest source of global dust. Human activity, on the other hand, accounts for only 8% of global dust.

As for sand storms, al-Danjali explained that “they typically originate in sand dunes, especially southerly or northerly winds which are more likely to occur in the desert. These tend to be local and rarely travel across regions, unlike dust storms, which can reach as far as the United States and Scandinavian countries, including Italy.” He added, “the difference between dust and sand storms is that only the former travel such long distances.”

Climate change and the severity of dust storms

A study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR) of the American Geophysical Union found that climate change will lead to less frequent but more intense desert dust storms in the future. Notably, there has been an increase in Saharan dust transport over the past 100 years compared to major incidents in the past 2,000 years. The study analysed ice samples from the Swiss-Italian Alps to track Saharan dust over the past two millennia. This increase is attributed to a combination of enhanced high-pressure systems over the Mediterranean and drier conditions in North Africa.

The JGR study, published in 2019, concludes that severe droughts caused by low precipitation and high temperatures in North Africa will result in increased dust and decreased air quality in residential areas along the transport paths of the desert dust. However, an American-French study conducted in collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Centre for Space Studies (CNES) suggests that desert dust activity may decrease in the next 20-50 years due to climate change and its impact on wind speed. The likelihood of increasing or decreasing sand and dust storm activity remains uncertain and depends on the wetness and dryness of the region. There is currently no clear evidence showing trends for future dust storm activity.

A report published by the CAMS program also noted that drought conditions and desertification linked to global warming could lead to increased amounts of dust and make the use of water and land unsustainable. Ali al-Danjali agreed that accelerated desertification and increased desert dust are caused by local activities, which he summarised as “poor land use, tree cutting, over-abstraction of water, and overgrazing.”

In 2015, al-Danjali cooperated with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in a research on the spatial distribution, frequency, and seasonality of dust and sand storms in Libya. One of the findings of the report was that the misuse and exploitation of land in Libya leads to soil erosion and desertification, and that dry lands affected by human activity contribute to soil disruption, making them sources of dust.

Missing data and lack of monitoring

Dust storm activity can be tracked and measured using a variety of methods, including satellite imagery, on-ground assessment, and mathematical modelling. These methods can be used to estimate dust concentration, storm intensity, duration, and variations over time, as well as to predict future storm activity and susceptibility to climate change. However, the lack of monitoring and measurement mechanisms for dust storms in Libya is a major issue for local specialists.

“There are no devices available to measure and monitor sandstorms in Libya, and we rely on regional monitoring systems or other traditional means, neither of which provide accurate quantitative data or high levels of probability," said al-Danjali. The NCM's current measurement methods are limited to traditional horizontal vision methods, and digital devices for documenting dust storms are simply not available.

The lack of monitoring and measurement tools for dust storm activity raises concerns about the Libyan state's ability to address future seasons of desert dust. This is particularly relevant given the current challenges faced by Libyan flora and fauna, including drought, water scarcity, and a lack of policies addressing and adapting to the climate crisis. One potential solution is to prioritise the needs of the NCM in order to fill the data gap, as recommended in a report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Libya. The WMO report emphasised the importance of weather data in supporting policymakers in developing action plans to combat desertification, mitigate the impacts of climate change, and improve natural resource management. To effectively monitor atmospheric dust on the ground, constant measurements need to be taken, starting with accurate analyses of local monitoring needs and building the capacity of staff to operate and maintain monitoring stations.

Addressing desert dust and dust storms

The impact of desert dust on public health, the environment, and the national economy cannot be underestimated, particularly in light of its increased frequency and intensity due to climate change. Therefore, it is critical for the Libyan government to prioritise the development of action plans in the coming years. In the absence of any climate change policies, it is all the more urgent to start developing such policies that take into account the most extreme phenomena.

The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification recommends strategies that combine impact mitigation and resource mitigation. Impact mitigation strategies focus on activities such as educating the population, especially vulnerable groups, about the impacts of dust storms, conducting risk assessments, establishing early warning systems and emergency response plans, and developing plans to reduce risks. Resource mitigation strategies involve activities that promote sustainable and integrated management of land, water bodies, and water resources.

One important strategy for reducing the economic and health impacts of dust storms is to build early warning systems, which can help to reduce road and flight disruptions and protect crops before and during storms. Forecasting dust storms can also be life-saving, for example by providing early warnings to people with respiratory diseases so that they can take necessary precautions.

In addition, reducing erosion factors in most areas of Libya is another effective strategy for mitigating the impact of dust storms. This strategy would preserve vegetation cover and reduce drought and soil disintegration. Furthermore, implementing sustainable water management practices can also significantly decrease the intensity of storms. In countries that experience dust storms seasonally, many projects are underway to build windbreaks - natural vegetation barriers that reduce wind speed and provide shelter for populations and delicate fields. The WMO report by al-Dinjali highlights the potential benefits of planting trees and shrubs and implementing sand soil stabilisation projects to combat sand movement and desertification.

To effectively address future impacts, it is crucial to demonstrate political will to tackle the challenges of climate change. This includes taking ambitious and responsible action on climate change, such as developing Libya's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plan for climate action and reviving the work of the National Climate Change Committee.